Thursday, March 26, 2009

Walking the Iranian Minefield

In an interview earlier this year, the IAEA Chairman Mohamed ElBaradei compared the Iranian's to traders or bazari's. This according to him sums up Iran's relationship with the west particularly America.

Iran has a sense of history. They are an ancient civilization dating back to the Greeks and Romans. Not mentioned most of the time is their pre-Islamic past. Until the Europeans found a way around the middle east, Iran was a big trading nation apart from being an advanced civilization. Iran is not like the other typical Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia whose existence does not pre-date the second world war. So understanding Iran and its reactions to the west must be seen through this prism.


The axis of evil conjured up by the former Bush administration does a great disservice not only to Iran but to America itself. Putting Iran and North Korea in the same basket exposes one's ignorance or perhaps arrogance.

While North Korea behaves like a child craving for attention whenever it feels the world is not paying any attention, Iran on the other hand behaves very differently. Most readers would notice that while the Iranian leaders sabre rattle sometimes, they do not push their luck. They know when to up the ante and when to cool things down. And they have wisely kept in touch with the European governments and not hesitated to cooperate with the US (clandestinely) in Afghanistan.

So all this talk by the right-wing punditry that Iran is the next looming danger is utter nonsense. Unlike North Korea or even Pakistan, Iran is not a failed or failing state. Unlike North Korea or Pakistan, Iran has an elected government. May be not the way the west wants it to be but nevertheless it is the closest to a democratic country in a big list of Islamic countries.

The Iranian's, rightly pointed by Elbaradei, are traders. Which basically means they will haggle until they get the right price. People familiar with haggling will know what I mean!

The US must understand that haggling with Iran is a very sophisticated game. The Iranian's are masters at this by sheer experience. The US must be very very careful while dealing with Iran or it risks loosing the game.

Sec. of State Hillary Clinton has her task cut out for her. In fulfilling the President's campaign promise to deal directly with Iran, she has already revealed few of her cards. Iran knows that the current administration is committed to a dialogue of some form and will try its best to get Iran to play ball. After all, the administration will not want the hawks to say - "We told you so!".

Iran will extract the maximum from the west for every step it takes to meet them somewhere in the middle. This directly fits into the supreme leader's hawkish posturing on the no-change that he sees in America's attitude towards his country.

Mrs. Clinton will do good by advicing her boss to use both the carrot and stick judiciously and not trip over himself trying to reach out and grab the Iranian hand.

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