Saturday, March 28, 2009

Pakistan's Quid Pro Quo, India's headache

Renewed focus on the Afghan war theatre was welcomed by the Afghan President Hamid Karzai. And its not difficult to understand why.

US President Barack Obama, breaking away from the laser sharp focus on the economy, brought out the much awaited new Afghan policy. And this is what Pakistan's Prime Minister had to say.

"We also want a regional approach because regional issues can be resolved with the support of regional powers. We are in favour of this policy. They (Americans) have accepted our position (that) army action alone is not a solution for all these problems."

Why would he not want a regional approach. America's renewed focus will give Pakistan another reason to milk the American cow. And this time it will be more than just money.


A lot has been written about Obama's Afghan policy and what he is willing to give Pakistan for cooperation. During the Bush years, India enjoyed an hands-off Kashmir American policy. But now, the Indian leadership is working out all possible nightmare scenarios for Indian diplomacy in the coming years.

The US point person for Afghanistan-Pakistan when asked about US interests in the Indo-Pak row, said the US was not interested in interfering. That put to rest any immediate American adventurism. However that does not rule out Pakistan asking for its pound of flesh when pushed against the wall.

These are tough times for the next government in India. Whether they like it or not, the "Global War Against Terror" is expanding into Pakistan right onto its border with India, especially on the Jammu and Kashmir side. Just as the Taliban retreated into the Afghan-Pak border to regroup amid supporters, the renewed pressure from America could push them to explore other safe havens or trouble spots. China's restive Muslim dominated provinces could be one and so could Jammu & Kashmir laden with sympathizers.

So, India will need all of its diplomatic skills to keep American at bay but when it comes to containing the spillage from across the border, India will need something more innovative.

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