21 May 1991 - Rajiv Gandhi was campaigning in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. He was to address a rally at Sriperumbudur when a tamil tiger suicide bomber walked up to him, did a traditional indian salute, bowed low and hit the button. The waist strap-on, blew up the former prime minister and with it India's foreign engagement confidence to bits.
India's southern seaboard has been the most peaceful compared to the other two border conflict zones in Jammu and Kashmir and the North East. This has been the case for quite sometime now though this region had been a bloody mess years ago. India's hands-off approach on Sri Lankan affairs brought about by externally triggered incidents and by a risk-averse leadership has paid off handsomely.
Part of the credit also goes to successive governments in Tamil Nadu that have cracked down on the rebel menace and have been successful in keeping it that way. The present chief minister of Tamil Nadu state J.Jayalalithaa has been at the forefront of this effort.
Cut over to the present elections in the Island nation. The tamil tigers have strategically pushed the country to elect the hardliner Mahinda Rajapakse as its President by calling for a poll boycott by the Tamils. Now, it seems as though the Sri Lankan people have elected a sinhalese nationalist to head them.
I am not sure what the intentions of the rebels are nor do I understand the path the new President is taking Sri Lanka through.
The Sri Lankan President who is to visit New Delhi on Dec 27, has indicated that he would request the Indian leadership to play a more active role in the peace process. India should become an active part of the quartet - US, EU, Japan and Norway, he opines.
This offer by the President is very tempting. Given that India would love to jump at any chance to prove itself a regional power. I am afraid India would jump into the deep end without proper gear.
I am sure the security analysts would come out with a bunch of reasons for India to get involved.
Chief among them being:
- This is not the late 1980s when India was experimenting with regional power status
- India is now in a better financial and economic position to take on the role
- The world now sees terrorism in a totally different light
- Moreover India is now a nuclear power with an international status
- And importantly, it is in India's interest to have a peaceful and prosperous Sri Lanka, as its neighbour.
Given all those reasons and perhaps more compelling ones, I have a few of mine against India going the whole mile.
India pulling out of the island nation was due to lack of trust on both sides in the peace process. And with the two year old peace process once again faltering, its all back to square one.
(Pic on left : Soldiers of the IPKF leaving Sri Lanka in March 1990)
Both the waring sides should have some degree of confidence on the Indian "interference" that its only for their good and not for any self interest. That was not there then and I dont see it now.
The Buddhist monks and the Sinhala Nationalist JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) continue to oppose Indian intervention. And since the JVP is an important constituent of the present government, I dont see any light there.
But the one reason I still hold out higher than the ones given above, is the capacity of India to handle yet another hot spot on its borders.
One should remember that India is already fighting low intensity conflicts in the North and East. And one should read the series of articles by Ramananda Sengupta in rediff on the rise of Bangladesh as India's major trouble maker in the East, to understand what India is going to face in the coming years.
Adding to these two is the maoist violence in Nepal that has links to the naxalite violence in many of the Indian states.
Its quite a miracle that the southern seaboard has been remarkably quite and peaceful inspite of the Sri Lankan conflict.
The Indian government is duty bound to keep it that way and I dont see how its going to help if at all they decide to get involved in the Lankan conflict.
I really hope the Indian government and its security establishment resist the tempation to flex some muscle and continue the present course of passive support to the peace process and Sri Lankan national integrity and unity.
Mr. President (Sri Lanka) we would love to help but unfortunately we have our hands full for now.
Good luck.
courtesy : CR (Conciliation Resources), Net Photograph
7 comments:
Once bitten, Twice shy...India should be very cautious before extending any direct help to Sri Lanka.
The IPKF debacle is still fresh in everybody's mind. Even if the SL Govt believes India, Its very difficult to expect the same from the people of SL.
Eshwar,
Good one!
India can never be a regional super-power and the term 'super-power' also sounds horribly macho and big-brotherly. I think India should never try to boss some other country and historically we know it never worked and I think it will never work.
Rags...yes the IPKF is still fresh in our minds.
Sancho...i am not so sure that India would be able to avoid the trapping of powerhood..be it regional power, super power or hyper power. All u need to do is talk to the people of the regional countries like Nepal or B'desh, they will give you a list of complaints and believe me...it would be very similar to our list against the US !!
Anand...if you are talking about Akhand Bharat...we have be very cautious. I am not sure where you came up with that laundry list of countries that should be part of AB. And why should they be ?
Eshwar,
It s tempting i.e this absolute power, but hopefully better sense will prevail.
Anand,
1. Historically I dont know which country we (Indians) have bossed.
Beg to differ da, tamil kings have played a major role in colonialising South East Asia. And you cant term them as non-invaders. Even now entire South East Asia have shades of Hindu culture.
2. Only China is trying to be a regional super-power by annexing HongKong, Taiwan, Tibet, aksaichin, by massacaring 1000s@ Tianmen square, etc.
I think those days are long gone, when Communists thought that war will give territories(check out '1984' it 's good). Chinese are showing great restraint against Taiwan and I think they are better than USA in being a bit more responsible atleast when it comes to dealing with other countries.
3. US as the world's super power has never worked, they were literally kicked out of Vietnam, now no WMD in Iraq, etc.
They cannot as you right said. Macho never works.
4. India should be a regional power, (and future India should consist of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Srilanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan, Tibet, etc.) atleast for promoting democratic values.
Forget it da. We have our share of difficulties in managing the present diversity. And, I think future will be decentralisation where states will have more power and money. We are yet to be mature as a country and 60 years is short time to show good progress. I think we will adopt similar attitudes like western industrialized block in implementing federalisation.
Sancho....well said dude well said.
HAppy new year !!!!blogging budz:)
may happiness b urs today tomorrow nd always!
Unaiza...thank you and wish u the same.
Post a Comment